Mortgage Rates Are Holding Steady After a Mixed Jobs Report – What It Means for You
If you’ve been watching mortgage rates like you would a favorite sports score, the latest jobs report might feel like someone hit the pause button. After months of roller‑coaster rate news, a new employment snapshot from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the U.S. economy shed 105,000 jobs in October but added 64,000 in November, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.6%, the highest since late 2021. What does this “one step forward, one step back” data mean for your mortgage plans? Let’s dig in.
Jobs up, jobs down – and mortgage rates barely budged
According to economists, the market interpreted the mixed job numbers as a signal that the Federal Reserve won’t make any sudden moves on interest rates. In fact, the average 30‑year fixed mortgage ticked down slightly to around 6.27% after the report landed. The Fed has already cut short‑term rates three times in 2025, and officials are taking a wait‑and‑see approach before acting again. Translation: no big changes on mortgage rates for now, but policymakers will scrutinize the next jobs report closely.
Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American, describes the current labour market as “low‑fire, low‑hire”, meaning employers aren’t adding many workers, but they aren’t laying them off in droves either. That lukewarm climate provides little impetus for the Fed to raise or lower rates dramatically.
The tug of war: labour market vs. mortgage market
Economists say 2026 could bring lower mortgage rates if the economy cools further. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, suggests that lower rates could “fuel strong home buying activity,” but she cautions that job insecurity might counteract the benefits. In other words, even if rates dip, some potential buyers may still hesitate if they fear layoffs or stagnating wages.
Meanwhile, wage growth slowed to 0.1% in November and 3.5% over the past year. Realtor.com’s senior economist Jake Krimmel notes that affordability remains front‑of‑mind for consumers, and softening wage gains don’t help. Higher rates combined with modest income growth can make monthly payments feel like a balancing act, especially for first‑time buyers.
Builders and inventory: another piece of the puzzle
On the construction side, the residential building sector has lost more than 42,000 jobs over the past year, reflecting a slowdown despite an overall increase in construction employment. The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index rose slightly in December but remains well below the breakeven level of 50. Chief economist Robert Dietz adds that builders remain optimistic about future sales, yet supply‑side challenges and rising inventory levels are weighing on confidence.
What it means for buyers and sellers
So where does this leave you? As a prospective buyer, you’ll want to keep a close eye on rates but also on your own job security and savings. Rates may inch down in 2026, but affordability pressures won’t disappear overnight. Sellers, meanwhile, should understand that higher inventory and cautious buyers may prolong days on market. so pricing and presentation matter more than ever.
As always, I’m here to help you interpret these market signals. Whether you’re ready to make a move or just want to talk through your options over a cup of coffee, let’s chat.
