Earlier today, I attended a Lunch & Learn hosted by Ashley Harris Smith and Kara Macdonald, where we had the opportunity to hear directly from Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS. She shared current data, forecasts, and insights specific to our region.
In a nutshell, here are the key takeaways that matter most for Northern Virginia homeowners and buyers.
Prices, Payments & Affordability - The median home price in the Northern Virginia / DC Metro area is approximately $600,000 (if you look more closely at certain counties it is higher). To comfortably qualify for a home at that price point, a buyer typically needs to earn around $180,000 per year.
While prices have stabilized, affordability remains the biggest challenge:
- Mortgage payments have increased 73%
- Salaries have increased only 19%
Inventory: The Real Story Is Property Type
Inventory did tick up slightly this year, but context is critical. Compared to 10 years ago, supply is still low. We saw spikes in listings in March and September, which economists attribute to federal workforce shifts, layoffs, and broader policy uncertainty.
- Single-family home inventory is about 63% compared to 2019 levels
- Townhome inventory remains steady
- Condo inventory is up roughly 223%
- Markets like DC, Alexandria and Arlington are driving much of that condo supply. Meanwhile, high condo fees and buyer preferences for space are pushing demand toward single-family homes, where new construction remains limited.
- Homeowners are staying in single-family homes an average of 13 years, up from 9
- Baby boomers are holding onto larger homes longer. All of this keeps single-family inventory tight.
- Median days on market? Just 10 days. That tells us demand hasn’t disappeared but it’s become more selective and strategic.
Looking Ahead to 2026 - National forecasts project:
- Approximately 4.5 million home sales
- Median home prices staying largely flat
Locally, for the DC Metro and Northern Virginia:
- Prices are expected to remain about the same but outcomes will vary widely by county, town, and even neighborhood.
Market Headwinds to Watch
- Interest rates expected to remain flat or decrease slightly
- Affordability challenges persist
- Economic uncertainty continues, and markets do not like uncertainty
Northern Virginia continues to operate in its own bubble. This market rewards:
- Hyper-local data
- Property-specific analysis
- Strategic pricing and preparation
If you’d like to understand how these trends affect your home, neighborhood, or plans, I’m always happy to be a resource.
