As we slip deeper into autumn, it’s not just the leaves that are changing, the real‑estate climate is shifting too. Over the past year Northern Virginia’s housing market has cooled from its frenetic pandemic highs, and mortgage rates have started to retreat from their summer peaks. Here’s a short and sweet overview of what’s happening right now, plus some friendly insight on why it matters for your home search or sale.
Mortgage Rates: Relief on the Horizon?
If you’ve been watching the headlines, you know rates have been on a roller‑coaster. The good news is they’re drifting downward. According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, national average rates for a 30‑year fixed loan hovered around 6.6 % in early fall. While that’s still higher than the 2021 lows, it’s a meaningful improvement from the 7 %‑plus rates we saw earlier this year. Lenders are getting competitive again, and some buyers are seeing quotes in the mid‑6 % range depending on credit score and loan type. Don’t let the number scare you; historically, anything under 7 % is considered reasonable, and you can always refinance when rates drop further.
Housing Inventory & Pricing: NVAR September Snapshot
For a more localized view of supply and pricing, we turned to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) Market Statistics for September 2025. This report focuses on Fairfax County, Arlington County, Alexandria, Loudoun County and other core Northern Virginia jurisdictions. According to NVAR, 1,351 homes were sold in September, a 9.5 % increase from a year earlier. The median sold price dipped to $715,000, down 1.4 % year‑over‑year signaling a modest easing of prices even as sales volume rises. Active housing inventory climbed to 2,660 homes, representing a significant 40.5 % jump from September 2024. New listings numbered 1,640 (up 18.3 %) and pending sales reached 1,438, up 4.28 %.
Supply metrics also point to a market gaining balance. Months of inventory stood at 1.93, a 34.7 % increase from a year ago. Homes spent an average of 28 days on the market, 40 percent longer than last September. This combination of expanding inventory and longer marketing times means buyers have more choices and leverage, though sellers are still seeing strong demand for well‑priced, move‑in ready homes. Bright MLS’s DC‑area report further notes that Loudoun County’s home sales were up 5.7 % with a 33.3 % increase in listings, while Fairfax County sales were up 3.6 % with listings up 33.6 %northernvirginiamag.com, suggesting similar dynamics at the county level. Data from NVAR.com
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
For buyers, the combination of slightly lower rates and higher inventory means more choice and slightly less competition. You may not need to waive every contingency or sprint to an offer in 24 hours. However, attractive properties, especially those updated and priced right, still move quickly. A pre‑approval and flexible timelines remain your best weapons.
For sellers, pricing strategically is critical. The days of naming your price and waiting for a bidding war are fading. Make sure your home is in tip‑top shape, invest in staging if needed, and partner with a REALTOR® who knows how to market your property effectively.
In short, the sky isn’t falling, it's just getting a little less frothy. Rates are easing, inventory is rising, and prices remain largely stable. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, now might be the sweet spot before the spring rush. Have questions about your specific neighborhood or how to position your home? Let’s grab a coffee (or maybe a pumpkin‑spiced something or another:) and talk strategy.
